Books, Publications and Working Papers
Danninger, S., M. Kumhof and D. Laxton, 2008, "When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?", Box 2.1
of Chapter 2 of the April 2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Elekdag, Selim, Rene Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir and Paolo Pesenti, 2008, "Oil Price
Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment", paper prepared for an IMF Workshop on Open Economy
Models for Policy Evaluation, forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers
Freedman, C., D. Laxton and I. Otker Robe, 2008, On Developing a Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting Regime:
Doing What You Say and Saying What You Do, April 25 manuscript available from authors.
Juillard, M., O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, and M. Kumhof, 2008, "Optimal Price Setting and Inflation
Inertia in a Rational Expectations Model", forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Laxton, D., D. Rose and A. Scott, 2008, “Developing a Structured Forecasting
and Policy Analysis System,” Chapter prepared for a book on implementation issues for Inflation Targeting. Draft available
from authors.
Kamenik, O., H. Kiem, V. Klyuev, and D, Laxton, 2008, “Why is Canada’s Price Level
so Predictable?” IMF Working Paper 08/25 (January 2008), available at www.imf.org.
Karam, P., D. Laxton, D. Rose and N. Tamirisa, 2008, "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of
Adopting the Euro". Forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2008, "South Asia: Illustrative Impact of an Abrupt Climate Shock"
Box 4.2 of Chapter 4 of the April 2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Laxton, D., 2008, "Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its Philosophy", forthcoming
in IMF Staff Papers.
Papers in 2007
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2007, "Improved Macroeconomic Performance-Good Luck or Good Policies"
Box 5.2 of Chapter 5 of the December 2007 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Argov, E., N. Epstein, P. Karam, D. Laxton, and D. Rose, 2007, Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility
in a Small Macro Model of Israel, IMF Working Paper 07/207 (August 2007), available at www.imf.org.
Gray, Gavin, Thomas Harjes, Andy Jobst, Douglas Laxton, Natalia Tamirisa and Emil Stavrev, 2007,
“The Euro and New member States,” in IMF Staff Country Report No. 07/259, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund) pp. 5-45.
Batini, Nicoletta and Douglas Laxton, 2007, “Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting
Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, ed. by Frederick
S. Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Chile: Banco Central de Chile), pp. 467–506.
Botman, Dennis, Phillipe Karam, Doug Laxton and David Rose, 2007, "DSGE Modeling at the Fund:
Applications and Further Developments". IMF Working Paper 07/200 (August 2007), available at www.imf.org.
Elekdag, Selim, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, and Paolo Pesenti, 2007, “Oil
Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment,” paper prepared for an IMF Workshop on Open Economy
Models for Policy Evaluation, April 18-21, 2007 (Washington, D.C.: Washington Plaza Hotel), Bank of Canada Working Paper,
2007-34, forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers.
Elekdag, S. and D. Laxton, 2007, “Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the World
Economy,” Box 1.2 in Chapter 1 of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Helbling, T., P. Berezin, A. Kose, M. Kumhof., D. Laxton and N. Spatafora, 2007, “Decoupling
the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy?” Chapter 4 of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, International
Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Papers in 2006
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2006, “How will global imbalances adjust?” Box 1.3 of Chapter
1 of the September 2006 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton and W. Schule, 2006, "Optimized Fiscal Rules for a Monetary Union"
prepared for a conference at the European Commission on Fiscal Policy Issues. Draft available from authors.
Epstein, N., D. Laxton. P. Karam and D. Rose, 2006, "A Simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis
System for Israel: Structure and Applications" in Israel: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 06/121 (March 2006),
available at www.imf.org.
Papers in 2005
Faruqee, H., D. Laxton, D. Muir and P. Pesenti, 2005, Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios
of global current account rebalancing, NBER Working Paper No. 11583.
Goretti, M. and D. Laxton, 2005, "Long-Term Inflation Expectations and Credibility",
Box 4.2 in Chapter 4 of the September 2005 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Laxton, D. and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti 2005, “How will global imbalances
adjust?” Appendix 1.2 of Chapter 1 of the September 2005 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available
at www.imf.org.
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton and D. Muir, 2005, "Consequences of U.S. Fiscal Consolidation for the
U.S. Current Account" in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 05/258 (July 2005), available at www.imf.org.
Batini, N., K. Kuttner and D. Laxton, 2005, “Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets?”
Chapter 4 of the September 2005 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org.
Karam. P., D. Laxton and N. Tamirisa, 2005, “Monetary Policy Implications of Capital Account
Volatility Under an Inflation Targeting Regime,” in Czech Republic: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 05/275 (August
2005), available at www.imf.org.
Papers in 2004
Bayoumi, T., D. Laxton, H. Faruqee, B. Hunt, P. Karam, J. Lee, A. Rebucci and I. Tchakarov, 2004,
“GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model,” Occasional Paper No. 239, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Bayoumi, T., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton and K. Naknoi, 2004, "Exchange Rate Regimes, International
Linkages and the Macroeconomic Performance of the New Member States," policy version prepared for a high level conference
at the ECB in October and an extended more analytical version was prepared for the IMF Annual Research Conference, November
2004.
Bayoumi, T., D. Laxton and P. Pesenti, 2004, "Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition
in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment," ECB Working Paper No. 341 and NBER Working Paper No. 10416.
Papers in 2003
Coats, W., D. Laxton and D. Rose, 2003, The Czech National Banks Forecasting and Policy Analysis System,
(Prague, Czech Republic: Czech National Bank).
Laxton, D., and P. Pesenti, 2003,"Monetary Policy Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies."
Journal of Monetary Economics 50, July, pp. 1109-1146.
Hunt, B. and D. Laxton, 2003, The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
in Japan, in Japans Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival,
Hunt, B. and D. Laxton, 2003, “The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary
Policy in Japan,” in Japan’s Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, ed. by Tim Callen and Jonathan Ostry
(Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund).
Hunt, B., P. Isard and D. Laxton, 2003, “Inflation Targeting and the Role of the Exchange
Rate”, unpublished draft available from authors.
Papers in 2002
Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton,, 2002, The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices,
National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 179, No. 1, pp. 87-103.
Boone, Laurence, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton and Papa N’Diaye, 2002, “How Well
Do Alternative Time-Varying Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment?,” unpublished draft available
from authors.
Bleaney Michael and Douglas Laxton, 2002, “Real Interest Rates and Real Exchange Rates:
Evidence from Indexed Bonds,” Manchester School (U.K.); 71, No. 1:65-77, January.
Laxton, Douglas and Papa N'Diaye, 2002, "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation
Nexus: Some Evidence from Seventeen OECD Countries," IMF Working Paper 02/220 (Washington: International
Monetary Fund).
Papers in 2001
Laxton, Douglas and Eswar Prasad, 2001, "Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland
A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor," Journal of Policy Modeling,
Vol. 23, Issue 5 (July) pp. 531-51.
Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 2001, “The zero interest rate floor (ZIF)
and its implications for monetary policy in Japan,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/186 (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 2001, “The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher
Oil Prices,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/14 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Clark, Peter, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 2001, "An Evaluation of Alternative Monetary Policy
Rules in a Model with Capacity Constraints," Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 33, No. 1 (February), pp. 42-64.
Isard, Peter, Douglas Laxton and Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001, Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty
and Endogenous Policy Credibility, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 25, pp. 115-148.
Papers in 2000
Isard, Peter and Douglas Laxton, 2000b, Inflation-Forecast Targeting and the Role of Macroeconomic
Models, in Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies: The Case of the Czech Republic, ed. by Warren Coates (Prague: Czech
National Bank), pp. 105-137.
Faruqee, Hamid and Douglas Laxton, 2000, Life-Cycles, dynasties, saving: implications for closed and
small, open economies, IMF Working Paper 00/126, July, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Laxton, Douglas and Alasdair Scott, 2000, On Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis
System Designed to Support Inflation-Forecast-Targeting, in Inflation Targeting Experiences: England, Finland, Poland, Mexico,
Brazil, Chile, (Ankara: The Central Bank of Turkey),pp. 6-63.
Isard, Peter and Douglas Laxton, 2000a, “Issues Relating to Inflation Targeting and the
Bank of England’s Framework,” in IMF Staff Country Report No. 00/106, (Washington: International Monetary Fund)
pp. 5-45.
Papers in 1999
Isard Peter, and Douglas Laxton, 1999, “Monetary Policy with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous
Credibility: Perspectives on Policy Rules and the Gains from Experimentation and Transparency,” in Monetary Policy Uncertainty
edited by Benjamin Hunt and Andrew Orr (Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Wellington).
Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 1999, “Simple Monetary Policy
Rules Under Model Uncertainty,” in International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr.,
ed. by Peter Isard, Assaf Razin, and Andrew K. Rose (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Ford, Robert, and Douglas Laxton, 1999, World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates, Oxford Review of
Economic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 77-94.
Papers in 1998
Laxton, Douglas, 1998, “MULTIMOD Mark III: The Equations and Documentation,” released
on http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/mmod/mark3/index.htm.
Laxton, Douglas, 1998, “Are simple monetary policy rules robust under model uncertainty
or would following such rules risk a repeat of the types of monetary policy errors that have been made in the past? Some comments
on Christiano and Gust (1998) and other recent research on the robustness of simple monetary policy rules,” paper prepared
for a conference on General Equilibrium and Monetary Transmission hosted by De Nederlandsche Bank on November 5-6, 1998 in
Amsterdam.
Laxton, Douglas, Hamid Faruqee, Hamid, Peter Isard, Eswar Prasad, and Bart Turtelboom, 1998, MULTIMOD
Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady-State Models, IMF Occasional Paper No. 164, May, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Bayoumi, Tamim, Douglas Laxton, and David T. Coe, 1998, “Liberating Supply: Fiscal Policy
and Technological Innovation in a Multicountry Model,” IMF Working Paper 98/95, June, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Armstrong, John, Richard Black, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 1998, “A Robust Method for
Simulating Forward-Looking Models”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 22, pp. 489-501.
Papers in 1997
Debelle, Guy, and Douglas Laxton, 1997, “Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence
for Canada, The United Kingdom and the United States,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 44, No. 2, June,
pp. 249–82.
Papers in 1996
Faruqee, Hamid, Douglas Laxton, and Steven Symansky, 1996, Government Debt, Lifecycle Income and Liquidity
Constraints: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence, IMF Working Paper 96/140, December, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Isard, Peter, and Douglas Laxton, 1996, “Strategic Choice in Phillips Curve Specification:
What if Bob Gordon is Wrong?,” prepared for a conference on the Macroeconomic Aspects of European Unemployment sponsored
by the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, November.
Laxton, Douglas, Hope Pioro, and Peter McAdam, 1996, “Solving MULTIMOD with First-Order
and Newton-Based Techniques,” released as a University of Strathclyde Discussion Paper in Economic Modeling, October.
Juillard, Michel, and Douglas Laxton, 1996, “A Robust and Efficient Method for Solving Nonlinear
Rational Expectations Models,” IMF Working Paper 96/106, September, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Clark, Peter, and Douglas Laxton, 1996, “Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemployment
Costs of Overheating,” prepared for a conference on Computational Economics in Geneva, Switzerland, May.
Clark, Peter, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 1996, “Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation
Nexus: Issues and Evidence,” IMF Staff Studies, Vol. 46, March, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Papers in 1995
Buckberg, E., Douglas Laxton, and others, 1995, “United States Background Papers,”
IMF Staff Country Report No. 95/94, September, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Laxton, Douglas, Guy Meredith, and David Rose, 1995, “Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity
on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42, June, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Clark, Peter, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 1995, “Capacity Constraints, Inflation and
the Transmission Mechanism: Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules,” IMF Working Paper 95/75, July, (Washington:
International Monetary Fund).
Black, Richard, Douglas Laxton, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow, 1995, “The Bank of Canada's
New Quarterly Projection Model: The Steady-State Model,” Technical Report No. 72, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), January.
Papers in 1994
Bayoumi, Tamim, and Douglas Laxton, 1994, Government Debt, Deficits, and the Business Cycle, Deficit
Reduction: What Gain, What Pain?, (C.D. Howe Institute).
Papers in 1993
Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow, 1993, Problems in Identifying Nonlinear Phillips Curves:
Some Further Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output, Working Paper 93/6, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), June.
Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, Robert Tetlow, 1993, Is the Canadian Phillips Curve Non-Linear?, Working
Paper No. 93/7, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), July.
Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, Robert Tetlow, 1993, Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption
of Linearity, Technical Report No. 63, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), August.
Laxton, Douglas, Nick Ricketts, and David Rose, 1993, Uncertainty, Learning and Policy Credibility,
Economic Behavior and Policy Choice Under Price Stability, Proceedings of a Conference held at the Bank of Canada, 30-31 October.
Papers in 1992
Laxton, Douglas, Kevin Shoom, and Robert Tetlow, 1992, Should the Change in the Gap Appear in the Phillips
Curve?: Some Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output, Working Paper 92/1, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), January.
Laxton, Douglas, and Robert Tetlow, 1992, “Government Debt in an Open Economy,” Technical
Report No. 58, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), January.
